The National security strategy was published back in October 2010 which "is
about gearing Britain up for this new age of uncertainty – weighing up the threats we
face, and preparing to deal with them".
This document thus defines the risk of various national issues and the extent
to which we should be planning for them (as organisations are now told to prepare
for a wide range of issues).
The risk assessment element of the strategy identified 3 tiers of risks:
Priority risks
International terrorism
Cyber war and Cyber crime
National natural hazard (flu or flooding affecting more than 3 regions)
Military crisis requiring the UK to get involved
Medium risks (could have high impact but less likely)
CBN war with another state
Civil war overseas increasing terrorist efficiency
Major growth in organised crime
Data communications severely interrupted
Lower risks
Conventional strike on the UK by another state
Major increase in crime
Disruption to fuel supplies
Civil nuclear disaster
Attack on a NATO country drawing us in
An attack on a UK overseas territory (i.e. the Falklands)
Disruption of international resources - i.e. food / supplies
This may seem a boring list but what it actually shows is that active war
related Civil Defence planning should (in the wider scheme of things) be
considered not our top priority.